Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 16,515
2 New Jersey 14,702
3 Massachusetts 10,195
4 Rhode Island 9,376
5 Connecticut 8,588
6 District of Columbia 7,540
7 Louisiana 6,452
8 Delaware 5,515
9 Illinois 5,199
10 Maryland 4,485
11 Michigan 4,439
12 Pennsylvania 4,215
13 Nebraska 3,332
14 Iowa 3,204
15 Indiana 3,124
16 South Dakota 3,075
17 Colorado 2,996
18 Mississippi 2,757
19 Georgia 2,719
20 Virginia 2,373
21 Washington 2,081
22 Tennessee 1,993
23 New Mexico 1,973
24 New Hampshire 1,938
25 Kansas 1,923
26 Nevada 1,839
27 Ohio 1,793
28 Florida 1,742
29 Alabama 1,720
30 Utah 1,699
31 North Dakota 1,661
32 California 1,489
33 Wisconsin 1,471
34 Missouri 1,453
35 Vermont 1,453
36 Minnesota 1,392
37 South Carolina 1,328
38 Kentucky 1,303
39 Arizona 1,278
40 Texas 1,182
41 North Carolina 1,171
42 Arkansas 1,168
43 Idaho 1,096
44 Oklahoma 1,042
45 Maine 912
46 Wyoming 780
47 West Virginia 693
48 Oregon 673
49 Puerto Rico 602
50 Alaska 504
51 Hawaii 434
52 Montana 426

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 New Jersey 258
2 District of Columbia 247
3 Rhode Island 202
4 Illinois 194
5 Massachusetts 193
6 Nebraska 191
7 Iowa 155
8 Maryland 145
9 New York 141
10 Connecticut 124
11 Delaware 113
12 Virginia 98
13 Minnesota 95
14 Kansas 87
15 Indiana 86
16 Mississippi 85
17 Pennsylvania 75
18 Kentucky 70
19 Colorado 65
20 New Mexico 64
21 Louisiana 61
22 Tennessee 57
23 Alabama 56
24 Wisconsin 51
25 Georgia 50
26 New Hampshire 50
27 South Dakota 50
28 North Dakota 49
29 Utah 48
30 Ohio 46
31 Arizona 43
32 California 42
33 Missouri 41
34 Michigan 38
35 Texas 32
36 Florida 30
37 Nevada 29
38 Washington 26
39 North Carolina 24
40 Oklahoma 23
41 South Carolina 22
42 Maine 18
43 Puerto Rico 17
44 Arkansas 16
45 Oregon 16
46 Wyoming 13
47 Vermont 11
48 West Virginia 10
49 Idaho 9
50 Alaska 2
51 Hawaii 0
52 Montana 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,009
2 New Jersey 928
3 Connecticut 738
4 Massachusetts 611
5 Louisiana 439
6 Michigan 418
7 District of Columbia 374
8 Rhode Island 335
9 Pennsylvania 250
10 Illinois 224
11 Maryland 213
12 Delaware 192
13 Indiana 180
14 Colorado 156
15 Georgia 120
16 Mississippi 114
17 Washington 113
18 Ohio 97
19 Nevada 89
20 Vermont 84
21 Virginia 83
22 Minnesota 80
23 New Mexico 77
24 Florida 68
25 New Hampshire 67
26 Missouri 66
27 Iowa 65
28 Alabama 64
29 Kentucky 62
30 Oklahoma 62
31 California 60
32 Wisconsin 60
33 South Carolina 57
34 Arizona 54
35 Kansas 54
36 Maine 45
37 North Carolina 45
38 Nebraska 42
39 Idaho 36
40 Tennessee 34
41 North Dakota 32
42 Texas 32
43 Arkansas 27
44 South Dakota 27
45 West Virginia 27
46 Oregon 26
47 Puerto Rico 17
48 Utah 17
49 Montana 14
50 Hawaii 12
51 Wyoming 12
52 Alaska 9

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Connecticut 18
2 New Jersey 18
3 Rhode Island 18
4 Massachusetts 17
5 New York 12
6 District of Columbia 11
7 Pennsylvania 10
8 Illinois 7
9 Maryland 7
10 Delaware 6
11 Louisiana 6
12 Michigan 5
13 Mississippi 5
14 Colorado 4
15 Indiana 4
16 Georgia 3
17 Iowa 3
18 Minnesota 3
19 New Mexico 3
20 Ohio 3
21 Virginia 3
22 Kansas 2
23 Nevada 2
24 Alabama 1
25 Arizona 1
26 Arkansas 1
27 California 1
28 Florida 1
29 Kentucky 1
30 Maine 1
31 Missouri 1
32 Nebraska 1
33 New Hampshire 1
34 North Carolina 1
35 South Carolina 1
36 South Dakota 1
37 Vermont 1
38 Washington 1
39 Wisconsin 1
40 Alaska 0
41 Hawaii 0
42 Idaho 0
43 Montana 0
44 North Dakota 0
45 Oklahoma 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Puerto Rico 0
48 Tennessee 0
49 Texas 0
50 Utah 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 119,816 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 65,494 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 50,634 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 49,424 4 99
Bledsoe Tennessee 39,896 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 4,786 211 93
Richland South Carolina 2,381 536 82
Pierce Washington 1,722 745 76
Orange California 923 1220 61
York South Carolina 779 1384 55

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 2,951 1 99
Early Georgia 2,650 2 99
Terrell Georgia 2,462 3 99
Nassau New York 1,658 4 99
Essex New Jersey 1,651 5 99
Richland South Carolina 113 467 85
Pierce Washington 60 763 75
Davidson Tennessee 46 895 71
Orange California 19 1274 59
York South Carolina 14 1357 56

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons